Another Polar Vortex Is Coming: What to Know About the Next Blast of Arctic Cold

After a winter marked by bitter cold, snowstorms and frequent surges of Arctic air, meteorologists are warning that another major polar vortex‑linked cold outbreak is likely in early to mid‑February 2026 — with potential impacts across parts of North America and even Europe. This next cold blast is tied to changes high in the atmosphere that can disrupt the polar vortex, allowing frigid air from the Arctic to spill far southward — sometimes hundreds or thousands of miles from the North Pole.

Understanding this forecast isn’t just about preparing for a cold snap: it’s about grasping how large‑scale atmospheric circulation can suddenly change winter weather patterns and send dangerously cold air toward populated regions.

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What Is the Polar Vortex — in Simple Terms?

The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air that surrounds both of Earth’s poles, typically strongest in winter. It’s not a single storm, but a circulation of very cold air high in the atmosphere (the stratosphere and upper troposphere) that helps contain Arctic air near the North Pole under normal conditions.

When the polar vortex is strong and circular, Arctic air stays bottled up at high latitudes and winters can be relatively mild in the mid‑latitudes (the U.S., Canada, Europe). But when that vortex weakens, stretches, deforms or splits, pieces of it can break off and move southward, bringing cold Arctic air deep into lower latitudes — that’s what many people refer to when they say “polar vortex coming.”

A key driver of these changes is a phenomenon called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) — a rapid temperature rise high in the stratosphere that can disrupt the vortex’s winds and circulation. When these winds slow and the vortex weakens, it often leads to colder outbreaks weeks later at the surface.

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Why Scientists Think Another Polar Vortex Event Is Likely

In the latest forecasts from weather analysis groups and model data, scientists have observed evidence that the polar vortex is undergoing significant disruption, with a strong stratospheric warming signal and circulation changes expected to evolve over the next week or two. Multiple meteorological sources indicate that:

• The polar vortex is currently weakened and distorted, with the core elongated over parts of North America and the North Atlantic.

• Forecast models now suggest a deeper breakdown or even a split of the vortex in mid‑February, which would send cold Arctic air lobes southward.

• Prior stratospheric warming signals — the precursor to surface cold outbreaks — have been confirmed and are expected to grow stronger, especially after mid‑February.

• Meteorologists note that this pattern is associated with multiple surges of Arctic air rather than a single storm, meaning cold conditions might persist on and off over weeks rather than just a day.

This combination of vertical atmospheric changes (in the stratosphere) and weakened polar circulation increases the odds of another polar vortex‑linked cold blast — potentially the coldest stretch yet this winter in some regions.

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Where the Cold Air Might Go

North America

Forecasters are highlighting the eastern and central United States, as well as eastern Canada, as especially vulnerable to additional Arctic air surges this month:

• AccuWeather’s long‑range projections suggest that the polar vortex will remain in a disrupted state through much of February across the eastern U.S., keeping “the freezer door wide open.” That could maintain frequent cold outbreaks, late winter storms, and higher heating demand.

• Weather models tracking a split vortex pattern show cold anomalies — air significantly colder than typical for the season — extending from central and eastern U.S. into southern Canada.

When the vortex has previously weakened like this, regions from the Great Lakes through the Northeast and into the Mid‑Atlantic have experienced repeated Arctic air intrusions, with temperatures dropping many degrees below average.

Europe and Western Asia

A disrupted polar vortex doesn’t only affect North America. Similar patterns can also shunt Arctic air toward northern and western Europe, bringing renewed cold and potential winter storms. Forecasts referencing the ongoing disruption note opportunities for cold air to reach parts of Europe as well, though the strongest effects may vary by region.

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How Long This Cold Spell Could Last

Unlike a single winter storm, polar vortex‑related shifts often cause extended periods of winterlike conditions because:

• The upper atmosphere’s dynamics influence the jet stream and surface weather patterns over broad regions and over several weeks.

• A split or elongated vortex often leads to a series of cold outbreaks as the Arctic air lobes oscillate, instead of one isolated event.

That means, for many areas of North America and northern Europe, the impact of this next polar vortex disruption could be felt intermittently through much of February and possibly into early March.

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Typical Weather Associated With These Events

When a polar vortex breakdown directs Arctic air south, weather impacts can be dramatic:

• Temperatures far below seasonal averages — sometimes dropping 20–30 °F (10–16 °C) below normal in affected regions.

• Increased snow and ice storm risk, especially when Arctic air collides with warmer, moist systems.

• Dangerous wind chills that elevate frostbite risk in exposed areas.

• Higher energy demand for heating, which can lead to significant stress on power grids and infrastructure.

Some forecasts linked to the disrupted vortex also suggest blanket snow cover potential and blizzard‑like conditions when Arctic air merges with favorable storm systems.

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Why This Year’s Polar Vortex Disruption Matters

1. Multiple Disruptions Already This Winter

This winter has already seen at least one significant polar vortex‑related cold wave — in early January 2025, a deep freeze brought temperatures well below normal across large parts of North America, with snow and ice impacts as far south as Mexico.

The fact that forecast models now point to another disruption this winter — a stratospheric warming event that weakens the vortex again — means that the pattern favoring Arctic air invasions is persistent.

2. Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Atmospheric Patterns

Meteorologists have also linked this winter’s extreme cold events to broader climate patterns: record low sea ice in some Arctic regions and heavy Siberian snowfall both help set up wave patterns that stretch and distort the polar vortex, increasing the likelihood of repeated cold surges.

This doesn’t mean the polar vortex is stronger or weaker overall because of climate change, but it does highlight how Arctic conditions can influence mid‑latitude weather patterns more intensely than in past decades.

3. Stratospheric Warming and Its Effects at the Surface

Sudden stratospheric warming events, though occurring high above the Earth’s surface, can have big implications for surface weather several weeks later, including prolonged cold and snow patterns. Meteorological research has linked these events with some of the most memorable cold outbreaks in recent decades, including the Beast from the East in Europe and other major cold waves.

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What People Should Do to Prepare

If you live in an area likely to be affected — especially in North America or northern Europe — consider taking steps to prepare for another potential polar vortex‑linked cold spell:

Stay Updated With Local Forecasts

Weather conditions can shift rapidly with changes high in the atmosphere. Trust local meteorological sources and official warnings for:

• Updated temperature forecasts

• Winter storm watches and warnings

• Ice and snow advisories

Protect Your Home and Property

Cold waves often put pressure on infrastructure:

• Insulate pipes and keep a slow drip running during extreme cold to prevent freezing.

• Make sure heating systems are serviced and ready.

• Check weather‑stripping around doors and windows to keep homes warmer.

Vehicle and Travel Preparedness

Especially if you live in the northern U.S. or Canada:

• Keep an emergency kit in your vehicle (blankets, food, water, flashlight).

• Check tire tread and antifreeze levels.

• Avoid travel during active winter storms if possible.

Health and Safety Considerations

Extreme cold and wind chills increase risk of:

• Frostbite and hypothermia

• Slippery sidewalks and roads

• Power outages

Dress in layers, protect exposed skin, and limit outdoor time during the coldest periods.

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When the Polar Vortex Hits, History Reminds Us of Its Force

Past winters have shown how quickly the polar vortex can reshape weather far from the Arctic. In January 2025, a similar southward migration of polar air brought prolonged below‑normal temperatures, snowfall, and disruptions across the U.S. and Canada.

While every polar vortex event is unique, one constant remains: when Arctic air breaks free of its usual bounds, it brings with it much colder, more severe winter weather than most regions are used to in normal years — a pattern that appears poised to repeat again in early 2026.

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Final Takeaway

Meteorological data and forecast models suggest that winter is not over yet — a disrupted, weakened polar vortex caused by stratospheric warming and other atmospheric dynamics is expected to send more Arctic cold into the mid‑latitudes in the weeks ahead. If models verify, this could mean another round of bitter cold, snow, ice and seasonal hazards across North America and even parts of Europe.