Caerphilly By-Election 2025: A Historic Turning Point in Welsh Politics

Caerphilly By-Election 2025: A Historic Turning Point in Welsh Politics

On October 23, 2025, voters in Caerphilly, a constituency in the South Wales Valleys, went to the polls in a Senedd by-election that could reshape the political landscape of Wales. This election was triggered by the sudden death of Labour Member of the Senedd (MS) Hefin David on August 12, 2025. His passing left the seat vacant, prompting the by-election under the Government of Wales Act 2006 and Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024 

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🗳️ The Candidates

The by-election saw a diverse array of candidates vying for the position:

• Lindsay Whittle (Plaid Cymru): A long-time local councillor and former MS, Whittle has been a prominent figure in Welsh politics.

• Llŷr Tomos Powell (Reform UK): A newcomer to the political scene, Powell represents Reform UK, a party that has gained traction among voters disillusioned with traditional politics.

• Richard Tunnicliffe (Labour): Tunnicliffe, a former Labour councillor, aimed to continue the legacy of the late Hefin David.

• Steve Aicheler (Welsh Liberal Democrats): A community councillor and education advocate, Aicheler focused on local issues and reform.

• Anthony Cook (Gwlad): An armed forces veteran, Cook emphasized Welsh nationalism and local economic development.

• Gareth Hughes (Green Party): A retired journalist, Hughes campaigned on environmental issues and social justice.

• Gareth John Potter (Conservative): Potter, a local businessman, represented the Conservative Party in the election.

• Roger Quilliam (UKIP): Quilliam, a former UKIP member, stood as an independent candidate.

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📊 The Polls

As the election approached, polls indicated a tight race:

• Reform UK: 42%

• Plaid Cymru: 38%

• Labour: 12%

• Conservative: 4%

• Green Party: 3%

• Liberal Democrats: 1%

These figures signaled a significant shift in voter sentiment, with Reform UK and Plaid Cymru leading, and Labour trailing behind

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🔍 The Implications

The outcome of this by-election holds substantial significance for Welsh politics:

• Labour's Decline: Once a stronghold in the South Wales Valleys, Labour's support has waned, with the party now trailing in third place.

• Reform UK's Rise: Reform UK's surge reflects a growing disillusionment with traditional parties, particularly among older voters and former Conservatives.

• Plaid Cymru's Momentum: Plaid Cymru's strong showing indicates a shift in support from disenchanted Labour voters, especially among younger demographics 

• Senedd Majority at Risk: A Labour loss could diminish its majority in the Senedd, complicating the passage of future legislation and budgets 

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🗓️ Looking Ahead

The Caerphilly by-election serves as a bellwether for the 2026 Senedd elections. The results could influence party strategies and voter behavior across Wales. With Labour's traditional dominance being challenged, the political dynamics in Wales are poised for a significant transformation.

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As the votes are counted and the results emerge, the Caerphilly by-election will undoubtedly be remembered as a pivotal moment in the evolution of Welsh politics.